Wednesday, September 23, 2026
Strait of Hormuz recovery odds rose 3 points to 23.5% while search interest flatlined at 7, signaling informed money ahead of the public. Meanwhile, a Pentagon UFO release spiked alien searches to 82 but Polymarket odds fell to 3.6%, showing attention without conviction.
Ongoing Stories(5)
Fed Decision in October
Still TrendingCut odds remain near zero; implied hike probability holds above 99%.
See previous coverageBitcoin $100k September
Still TrendingOdds steady at 3.1% as Bitcoin price holds above $66k.
See previous coverageRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
Still TrendingJD Vance holds at 51.2% in the $707M market.
See previous coverageBrazil Presidential Election
Still TrendingLula trades at 40.5% as Flávio Bolsonaro remains competitive.
See previous coverageUS-Iran Ceasefire
Still TrendingBlockade end-by-year-end market trades at 62.1% Yes; Strait of Hormuz recovery odds tick up to 23.5%.
See previous coverageVisualizations(5)
Strait of Hormuz: Odds of Normal Traffic by Dec 31
Odds collapsed from 79.5% in May to 23.5% today, but bounced 3 points in the last 24h while search interest sits at 7.
Aliens: Odds of US Confirmation Before 2027
Long-term decline from 17.5% in March to 3.6% today, with a 0.7-point dip in the last 24h despite a search spike.
Divergence Snapshot: Market Conviction vs Public Attention
Strait of Hormuz odds are 23.5% with search interest at 7; Aliens search interest is 82 while odds are just 3.6%.
Strait of Hormuz: US Search Interest
Search interest flatlined near 7 after a brief spike to 61 in early August, even as Polymarket odds ticked up 3 points.
Aliens & UFOs: US Search Interest
Search interest spiked to 82 on Sep 23 for 'aliens' and 47 for 'UFO', up from 60 and 33 the day before, following the Pentagon's 6th UAP file release.