Wednesday, September 16, 2026
Flávio Bolsonaro overtook Lula on Polymarket's $150M Brazil market while US search interest flatlined at zero, as the Fed's 87.5% hike probability on decision day drew almost no public attention. Kash Patel's Senate testimony spiked searches but markets priced his job as safe at 97.9%.
Ongoing Stories(3)
Fed September Meeting: Hike vs No-Change Odds
Major UpdateFOMC decision day: 25bps hike holds at 87.5% on Polymarket with $21.5M in 24hr volume, while US search interest remains near zero (9 for "Fed interest rates").
See previous coverageMcConnell Resignation Odds vs Search Interest
Winding DownSearch interest declined from 100 peak to 32 as the story cools; McConnell vote resolution market has already settled.
See previous coverageSocial Security COLA Searches Spike, Insolvency Market Sleeps
Still TrendingSocial Security COLA search interest ticked up to 13 from baseline, though still below the spike seen in late August.
See previous coverageVisualizations(4)
Brazil 2026: Flávio Bolsonaro Overtakes Lula on Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro surged from 51.6% to 54.5% in 48 hours while Lula fell from 46.5% to 44.5%, flipping the $150M market toward the challenger. Latest spread: +10 points for Flávio Bolsonaro (54.5% vs 44.5%). Source: Polymarket event "Brazil Presidential Election".
Fed Decision Day: 25bps Hike Odds Hold at 87.5%
On the day of the September FOMC meeting, Polymarket prices an 87.5% chance of a 25bps hike and just 11.5% for no change, with odds stable in an 86.5%-90.5% range over the past 48 hours. The market has priced in a hike since mid-August while US search interest remains near zero. Source: Polymarket event "Fed Decision in September?".
Political Search Spikes: Kash Patel and Pete Hegseth Surge
Kash Patel search interest spiked to 99 then re-elevated to 22 following his Sept 15 Senate testimony, while Pete Hegseth held at 23 amid impeachment chatter. Fed interest rates interest hit just 9 on decision week despite an 87.5% hike probability. Source: Google Trends, US, 3-month timeframe.
US Google Ignores Brazil's Election Entirely
US search interest for "Flavio Bolsonaro" and "Brazil election 2026" flatlines at 0-3 over the past 3 months, while "Lula" searches (many non-political) average 60. The $150M Polymarket market is pricing a regime-change scenario that American audiences have not discovered. Source: Google Trends, US, 3-month timeframe.