Thursday, September 17, 2026
After the Fed delivered its first hike since 2023, October meeting odds swung to a near coin flip between no change and another 25bps increase, while Russia's $31M parliamentary election market opens tomorrow with United Russia slipping to 74.5% and New People rising to 21.8% as American search interest stays near zero.
Visualizations(4)
Fed Search Interest Explodes After Rate Hike
Search interest for 'fed rate hike' spiked to 100 on Sept 16 (decision day) and 'federal reserve interest rates' hit 87 on Sept 17, an 800%+ surge as the Fed delivered its first hike since 2023.
Fed October Meeting: From Pause to Coin Flip
No-change odds collapsed from 71.5% in August to 54.5% today, while 25bps hike odds surged from 23.5% to 44.5% after the September hike and dot plot signaling more tightening ahead. The two outcomes are now just 10 points apart after the Fed's first hike since 2023.
Russian Election Eve: United Russia Slips, New People Rise
United Russia odds for 'most seats gained' dropped from 79.5% on Sept 13 to 74.5% today, while New People surged from 16.1% to 21.8%. The election begins tomorrow, yet US search interest remains near zero.
Harry Kane's Ballon d'Or Odds: From 67% to 56%
Kane's probability to win the 2026 Ballon d'Or fell from a 67.2% peak on Sept 4 to 53.5% on Sept 16, before recovering slightly to 56.4%. US search interest in the award has barely registered.