Tuesday, September 15, 2026
McConnell's Senate return triggered a 71-point prediction market spike to 99.4% while resignation odds stayed flat at 12.5%. Fed hike probability hit 88% on the eve of the FOMC meeting even as public search interest remained near historic lows.
Ongoing Stories(3)
Fed 25bps Hike Probability
Major UpdateSeptember meeting hike odds surged to 88.0% on Polymarket (up from ~78.5% three days ago), with Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan both flipping to hawkish forecasts ahead of tomorrow's FOMC decision.
See previous coverageDemocratic 2028 Nomination: AOC Leads the Betting
Still TrendingAOC holds at 19.1% on Polymarket, with Gavin Newsom at 12.8%; daily volume remains elevated at $841K.
See previous coverageClarity Act (H.R.3633) Passage Odds
Still TrendingClarity Act odds steady at 18.5% Yes, with $1.18M in daily volume as the Senate schedule remains unresolved.
See previous coverageVisualizations(5)
McConnell Resignation Odds vs Search Interest
Search interest spiked 6x to 30 this week while resignation odds stayed flat at 12.5%, down from 23.5% a month ago.
McConnell Senate Vote Odds: The 71-Point Resolution
Probability of McConnell voting by Sep 30 exploded from 28% to 99.4% in 48 hours after he returned to the Senate floor on Sep 14.
Search Interest: McConnell vs Social Security COLA vs Elon Musk
McConnell searches re-spiked to 30, Social Security COLA quietly climbed to 10, while Elon Musk remained flat at 13.
Alien Disclosure Market: $38M Volume, Flat 3.9% Odds
Probability of US confirming aliens before 2027 hovers at 3.9%, down from 4.5% in August, with virtually zero Google search interest.
Fed Search Interest: Rate Hike Attention Still Asleep
'Fed rate hike' searches sit at 6, while 'federal reserve' interest cooled to 21—both far below the March peak of 66—despite 88% market pricing for a September hike.