Tuesday, September 22, 2026
Polymarket now prices a 54.5% chance of a second Fed hike in October while search interest has collapsed, creating a 20-point divergence with Kalshi. Democratic sweep odds hit 65.5% after a 14-month climb from 18.5%, even as public attention fades.
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NFL QB Injury Search Surge
Still TrendingJaxson Dart is now the top-trending NFL injury search (+1000%) following Monday Night Football, extending the QB injury surge that started with Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels.
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Public Attention on Fed Policy Collapses After Sept 16 Spike
Search interest for 'Fed rate cut' crashed from 37 on Sept 16 to 14 on Sept 22, while 'Fed rate hike' searches peaked at 16 on Sept 17 and flatlined at 1, even as markets price 54.5% odds of an October hike.
2026 Midterms Search Interest Peaked at 89 on Sept 15, Now Fading
Public search interest in the 2026 midterms spiked to 89 on Sept 15 but has fallen 45% to 49 by Sept 22, even as prediction markets steadily raise Democratic sweep odds to 65.5%.
Fed October Meeting: Hike Odds Surge to 54.5%, Cut Probability Collapses to 0.5%
Polymarket odds for a 25bps hike climbed from 15% in early July to 54.5% today, while no-change odds fell from 71.5% to 44.5% and cut odds collapsed from 14.5% to 0.5% after the Sept 16 rate increase.
Bitcoin $100k September Odds Compress to 3% Despite Rally
Odds of BTC hitting $100k in September fell from a 5.5% peak on Sept 21 to 3.0% today, even as Bitcoin rallied 6.7% to $86,240, leaving a $13,760 gap with only 8 days remaining in the month.
Democratic Sweep Odds Hit 65.5% After 14-Month Climb From 18.5%
Polymarket odds for a Democratic Senate and House in 2026 rose steadily from 18.5% in July 2025 to 65.5% today, gaining 5 points in the last 48 hours alone while public search attention fades.