Monday, September 21, 2026
Permanent daylight saving time searches spiked 100x while Polymarket odds stayed flat at 6%, creating a major attention-conviction gap. Meanwhile, Caleb Williams' season prop crashed 27.5 points on his hamstring injury, while Jayden Daniels' market recovered from 30% to 68% after an elbow dislocation.
Ongoing Stories(2)
US-Iran Ceasefire
Still TrendingThe Sept 25 ceasefire continuation market holds steady at 92.5%, with Sept 20 having resolved at 100%.
See previous coverageTrump Greenland Deal
Still TrendingOdds for a deal signed by Sept 23 ticked up to 87.5%, while the Sept 25 deadline sits at 93.5% and year-end at 97.6%.
See previous coverageVisualizations(5)
Daylight Saving Time: Search Interest vs Market Odds
Search interest for permanent daylight saving time exploded from 1 to 100 on Sept 21 (a 100x spike) as the Senate returned from recess, while Polymarket odds barely budged from 6.0% to 6.5% before settling at 6.0%.
Caleb Williams: Passing Yards Prop Crashes on Injury
Caleb Williams' odds of hitting 3,124.5+ passing yards collapsed 27.5 percentage points from 83.5% to 56.0% after he suffered a hamstring injury and was carted off against the Vikings on Sept 20.
Jayden Daniels: Market Panic and Recovery
Jayden Daniels' passing yards prop crashed to 30% during the elbow injury scare on Sept 20, then dramatically recovered to 68% by Sept 21 despite a confirmed dislocation, suggesting traders are betting against a season-ending repeat of his 2025 injury.
NFL QB Injury Search Surge: Sept 21
Both Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels hit peak search interest of 100 on Sept 21, but injury-specific queries were 65% higher for Daniels (48 vs 29), reflecting greater severity concerns for the Commanders QB's elbow dislocation.
QB Prop Odds: Before vs After Injury
Caleb Williams' season prop fell 27.5 points after his hamstring injury, while Jayden Daniels' prop dropped only 7.5 points after his elbow dislocation, with the market pricing a much faster return for Daniels.