Thursday, September 24, 2026
Fed October hike odds surged to 68.5% while search interest collapsed 98% from peak, Flavio Bolsonaro overtook Lula 56.7% to 42.5% in a $154M market with near-zero US attention, and Nithya Raman flipped the LA mayor race to 58% as a Berkeley poll drove both betting and search spikes.
Ongoing Stories(1)
Fed October Meeting: Hike Odds Surge to 54.5%, Cut Probability Collapses to 0.5%
Major UpdateHike odds surged another 14 points to 68.5% for a 25bps increase, while the no-change probability fell to 29.5% and cut probability fell effectively to zero. Goldman Sachs and Bank of America both flipped to forecast additional hikes after Chair Warsh's 'removing accommodation' framing.
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Fed Search Interest Collapses After Sept 16 Peak
Google searches for 'Fed interest rates' crashed 98% from a peak of 100 on Sept 16 to just 2 today, even as Polymarket hike odds climbed another 14 points to 68.5%. Source: Google Trends via SerpAPI (cache_id: d6d575b5-44ef-46ff-8863-cff82e75a2cb). trends_url: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%203-m&geo=US&q=Fed%20interest%20rates,Federal%20Reserve%20October%202026
Nithya Raman Search Interest Spikes on Poll Release
Google searches for 'Nithya Raman' exploded from 28 on Sept 23 to 100 on Sept 24 as the Berkeley IGS/LA Times poll dropped, while 'Karen Bass LA mayor' remained near zero. Source: Google Trends via SerpAPI (cache_id: 351d0da0-4e0a-4de9-8aef-6191bf572f5f). trends_url: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%203-m&geo=US&q=Nithya%20Raman,Karen%20Bass%20LA%20mayor
Fed October 25bps Hike Odds
Odds surged from 24.5% on Aug 24 to 68.5% today, with a 14-point jump in the last 48 hours after Goldman and BofA flipped forecasts. Cut probability has collapsed to effectively zero.
LA Mayor Race: Raman Overtakes Bass
Nithya Raman surged from 35% to 58% in one month while Karen Bass crashed from 64.5% to 42.5%, a 22-point swing driven by a Sept 21 Berkeley IGS poll showing Raman 39%, Bass 28%.
Brazil Election: Flavio Bolsonaro Surges to 56.7%
Flavio Bolsonaro climbed from 33% to 56.7% in one month, briefly hitting 60.6% on Sept 22, as a Supreme Court scandal tied to Justice Moraes and the Banco Master probe reshaped the race. Lula da Silva trails at 42.5%.