Thursday, October 8, 2026
Hurricane Isaias triggered a 35-point swing in a brand-new Florida landfall market while flood watch searches hit 100, and a WSJ scandal spiked Kimberly Guilfoyle search interest 500% against an existing 31.5% ambassador removal market.
Ongoing Stories(4)
Fed Decision
Still TrendingFed October meeting markets remain the second-most traded on Polymarket with $1.33M in 24h volume. No-change odds hold above 99% as traders price out any rate cut.
See previous coverageDemocratic Nominee 2028
Still TrendingAOC and Newsom remain effectively tied at 17.9% and 17.8% respectively, with $1.18M in daily volume. No significant movement since yesterday's coverage.
See previous coverageBrazil Election
Still TrendingBrazil presidential election markets continue active trading at $826K in 24h volume. Lula holds at 15.5% after Flavio Bolsonaro's first-round lead was covered earlier this week.
See previous coverageNobel Peace Prize
Still TrendingNobel Peace Prize markets trade $731K daily with Sudan Emergency Response Rooms leading at 15.4%, followed by Mykola Kuleba at 8.5%. Search interest remains flat at 5 despite heavy betting volume.
See previous coverageVisualizations(5)
Guilfoyle Scandal: Market at 31.5% as Search Spikes 500%
WSJ's Oct 8 report on Guilfoyle's $100K AmEx request drove search interest from 3 to 19 (up 500%), while Polymarket priced her removal by Dec 31 at 31.5% before the story broke.
Isaias Florida Landfall Odds Swing 35 Points in 24 Hours
Polymarket odds for Isaias making hurricane landfall in Florida opened at 27.5% on Oct 7, crashed to 15%, then spiked to 69% before settling at 63% as NHC forecasts narrowed the cone toward the Florida Panhandle and northern Gulf Coast.
Weather Search Interest Explodes as Dual Storms Approach
Flood watch searches hit 100 today (up from 3 yesterday), and hurricane rachel spiked to 42 as dual storm systems threaten the Gulf and Pacific coasts simultaneously.
Susan Dell and Trump Accounts Search Interest Explodes
Susan Dell search interest hit 100 and trump accounts spiked to 30 following the Oct 7 White House announcement that 70 million children were auto-enrolled in Trump Accounts, with no prediction market available to hedge the program's rollout.
Eagles Win Total Barely Budges After Losing Two Pro Bowlers
Despite Lane Johnson's retirement and Cam Jurgens' trade to Baltimore, Eagles over 8.5 wins moved only from 41.5% to 53%, suggesting traders believe acquired draft capital offsets immediate offensive line losses.