Saturday, October 3, 2026
Indiana's statewide data center moratorium market crashed 39 points to 14.5% despite $2.3M in volume, while Anthropic bankruptcy odds doubled to 10.5% days after its IPO filing revealed $42B in losses. Fed markets now price an 82.5% October hold but a 73.5% December hike, signaling a delay-not-pivot consensus.
Ongoing Stories(1)
Fed October 25bps Hike Odds
Major UpdateFed no-change odds have surged past 80% to 82.5%, while 25bps hike odds collapsed further to 17.5%. The December meeting now shows 73.5% hike odds, suggesting markets expect a delay rather than abandonment of tightening.
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Fed Hike Expectations: October vs December Divergence
Markets price an 82.5% chance of no Fed move in October but a 73.5% chance of a 25bps hike in December, implying traders expect the Fed to delay rather than abandon tightening.
US Search Interest: Anthropic IPO vs Fed Interest Rates
Anthropic IPO search interest spiked to 38 on Sep 29-30 during filing disclosures, while Fed search interest hit 100 on Sep 16 then flatlined, showing public attention peaked before the latest market repricing.
Indiana Data Center Moratorium Odds Collapse
Probability of a statewide Indiana data center moratorium by Dec 2027 crashed from 53.5% on Sep 30 to 14.5% on Oct 3, a 39-point collapse in 72 hours as traders realized local Indianapolis action does not equal statewide policy.
Anthropic Bankruptcy Odds Nearly Double
Anthropic bankruptcy probability by Dec 2027 doubled from 5.5% on Oct 2 to 10.5% on Oct 3 after IPO filing revealed $42B net losses and $518B in supplier liabilities, with informed money moving days after the initial news.
Fed October Meeting: No Change Surges, Hike Odds Collapse
Fed October no-change probability surged from 30.5% on Sep 29 to 82.5% on Oct 3, while 25bps hike odds collapsed from 68.5% to 17.5%, completing a 52-point reversal in five days.
Fed Hike Expectations: October vs December Divergence
Markets price an 82.5% chance of no Fed move in October but a 73.5% chance of a 25bps hike in December, implying traders expect the Fed to delay rather than abandon tightening.
US Search Interest: Anthropic IPO vs Fed Interest Rates
Anthropic IPO search interest spiked to 38 on Sep 29-30 during filing disclosures, while Fed search interest hit 100 on Sep 16 then flatlined, showing public attention peaked before the latest market repricing.