Monday, October 5, 2026
Flávio Bolsonaro's Brazil election odds jumped 20 points to 81.8% on first-round results with near-zero US search attention, while Bitcoin October $100K strike odds sit at 11.5% despite a 35% price rally and Russia plague searches spiked 700% with no market to trade.
Ongoing Stories(5)
Fed October Meeting: No Change Surges, Hike Odds Collapse
Still TrendingNo-change odds firmed further to 83.5%, while hike odds compressed to just 16.5%.
See previous coverageS&P 500 >$8,000 December Odds Drop
Still TrendingS&P close-above-$8K December odds steady at 37.5% with minimal new volume.
See previous coverageAGI by 2027 Priced at 16.5% While Google Sleeps
Still TrendingOpenAI AGI-by-2027 odds unchanged at 16.5% as search interest remains near zero.
See previous coverageTrump ACA Refund Checks Go Viral With Nowhere to Bet
Still TrendingTrump $5,000 check searches continue spiking, up 300% again today, still no dedicated market.
See previous coverageMarine Le Pen Climbs to 42.8% With Zero US Search Momentum
Still TrendingLe Pen edges higher to 44.9% in French presidential market while US search attention stays flat.
See previous coverageVisualizations(5)
Brazil Election: Flávio Bolsonaro Win Probability
Flávio Bolsonaro's odds surged from 63% to a peak of 83.5% after first-round results, settling at 81.8% — a 20-point move in 24 hours on $6.2M volume.
US Search Interest: Brazil Election Keywords
US search interest for 'brazil election' spiked from 3 to 100 and 'flavio bolsonaro' jumped to 18 on election day, but overall attention remains a fraction of domestic political topics.
Bitcoin Price vs Flat Search Interest (3 Months)
Bitcoin rallied 35% from $63.5K to $86.2K over three months, yet US search interest for 'Bitcoin price' faded from 69 to 49 even as price neared all-time highs.
US Search Interest: Russia Plague Outbreak
Searches for 'russia plague' exploded from zero to 100 and 'plague outbreak' hit 44 in 48 hours as news of a pneumonic outbreak spread, with no prediction market available to trade the risk.
Bitcoin October Strike Probabilities
With Bitcoin trading at $86,240, prediction markets assign only an 11.5% chance it hits $100K and 5.0% for $105K by October 31, suggesting traders price in a ceiling despite the 35% three-month rally.