Saturday, August 1, 2026
Hamas disarmament prediction markets collapsed 25 points from 89.5% to 64.5% despite Trump's "historic deal" announcement, as traders priced in Israel's refusal to sign the framework. Fed September hike odds climbed to 61% while public search interest collapsed to near zero, creating a divergence between informed money positioning and public attention.
Ongoing Stories(2)
Fed September Rate Hike Odds vs Search Interest
Major UpdateHike odds continued climbing to 59.5% (from 52.5%), while 'no change' dropped to 38.5%. Combined hike probability now at 61% vs just 2.7% for any cut. Hawkish repricing accelerating.
See previous coverageUS-Iran Invasion Odds Creep Higher While Search Interest Flatlines
Still TrendingInvasion odds holding steady at 24.5% with $51.5M total volume. Search interest remains near zero despite persistent market pricing of geopolitical risk.
See previous coverageVisualizations(4)
Elon Musk Tweet Count Prediction (Resolves Aug 4)
Markets pricing Musk's tweet volume (July 28-Aug 4) in the 240-299 range, with highest probability on 260-279 tweets at 23.5%. Market resolves in 3 days with $1.4M+ total volume.
Hamas Disarm Market: 25-Point Collapse in 24 Hours
Hamas disarmament odds plummeted from 89.5% to 64.5% (down 25 points) after news that Hamas agreed to a US-brokered disarmament plan BUT Israel has not signed on and major hurdles remain. Market showing skepticism about actual implementation.
Fed September Decision: Hawkish Repricing Continues
25bps hike odds climbed from 52.5% to 59.5% (+7 points) while 'no change' fell from 44.5% to 38.5% (-6 points). Markets now pricing 61% combined probability of a rate hike vs only 2.7% chance of any cut.
US-Iran Invasion: Steady at 24.5% Despite Zero Public Attention
US-Iran invasion odds remain stable at 24.5% with $51.5M total volume. Search interest near zero despite ongoing geopolitical tensions. Markets pricing persistent risk while public attention has moved on.