Sunday, August 2, 2026
US-Iran invasion odds collapsed 5 points to 19.5% while search interest stayed flat at 51, and Strait of Hormuz normalization odds doubled to 11.5% with public attention near zero. Brazil's $117M election market shows Lula at 66.5% with virtually no US search interest, creating massive information asymmetry for traders with local sources.
Ongoing Stories(1)
US-Iran Invasion Odds
Major UpdateOdds collapsed another 5 points to 19.5% (from 24.5%), now down 7 points from July 30 peak of 26.5%. Sharp repricing lower as search interest remains flat at 51.
See previous coverageVisualizations(4)
US-Iran Invasion: Market Odds vs Search Interest Divergence
Invasion odds collapsed 5 points from 24.5% to 19.5% in 24 hours (lowest since July 23), while search interest flat at 51. Markets pricing reduced war risk while public attention remains dormant.
Strait of Hormuz: Rising Odds vs Collapsed Search Interest
Normalization odds nearly doubled from 6.5% to 11.5% in 24 hours, but Strait of Hormuz search interest collapsed to 5 (down from 29 peak). Markets see prolonged disruption; public moved on.
Brazil Election: $117M Market vs US Search Interest
Lula leads at 66.5% with Flávio Bolsonaro at 24.6% in massive $117M market. US search interest for 'Brazil election' flat at 2 (near zero), showing complete disconnect between betting money and American public attention.
Jensen Huang 'Construction Careers' Search Explosion
Jensen Huang search interest spiked from 5 to 100 (20x increase) after construction careers forecast comments. 'Construction careers' also jumped to 54. No prediction market captures this narrative.