Friday, July 31, 2026
NVIDIA odds surged to 88% for becoming the world's largest company by July 31 close despite Apple still leading by $180B in market cap, while Fed September hike odds remain coin-flip at 52.5% even as public search interest collapsed 82% post-July meeting.
Ongoing Stories(3)
Strait of Hormuz Traffic Recovery
Winding DownMarket effectively resolved to 0% probability of normal traffic by July 31. $23.5M volume validated bearish consensus. Search interest collapsed to 9 from 80 peak.
See previous coverageFed Rate Hike 2026 Odds vs Search Interest Divergence
Still TrendingSeptember hike odds now coin-flip at 52.5% vs 44.5% no change, but search interest collapsed 82% post-July meeting. Markets remain hawkish while public moved on.
See previous coverageUS-Iran Invasion Odds Creep Higher While Search Interest Flatlines
Winding DownStrait of Hormuz market resolved to 0% traffic recovery. Related invasion markets likely seeing similar divergence between market pricing and public attention fade.
See previous coverageVisualizations(5)
NVIDIA 'Largest Company' Odds vs Search Interest Divergence
Market odds for NVIDIA as largest company surged from 18% to 88% in 7 days while search interest stayed flat at 15-37 range. Apple still leads by $180B market cap but markets expect NVIDIA to close gap today.
Fed September Rate Hike Odds vs Search Interest Collapse
Fed September hike odds remain coin-flip at 52.5% vs 44.5% no change, but search interest collapsed 82% from peak of 94 on July 29 to just 17 today. Markets still pricing hawkish risk while public moved on.
Trump-Tucker Carlson Insult Odds Collapse Pre-Expiration
Odds of Trump insulting Tucker Carlson collapsed 52% from 30% to 14.5% in final 24 hours before market expiration on July 31. No public search spike detected - pure market repricing on time decay.
Strait of Hormuz Search Interest vs Market Resolution
Strait of Hormuz search interest collapsed 89% from June peak (80) to July 31 (9) as market effectively resolved to 0% probability of normal traffic resuming. $23.5M market consensus proved correct.
July 31 Market Cap Race: Apple vs NVIDIA
Apple still leads NVIDIA by $180B in market cap ($4.90T vs $4.72T) but prediction markets price NVIDIA at 88% odds to overtake by end of July 31. Gap requires 4%+ NVIDIA rally or Apple decline today.