Latest Prediction Markets signals

Thursday, July 30, 2026

Dr. Fauci's 5th Amendment testimony triggered a 100x search spike to 100 while charging odds remain skeptical at just 13.5%, creating a dramatic attention-odds divergence. Meanwhile, US-Iran invasion odds quietly climbed to 26.5% with $1.4M daily volume while search interest flatlined—a classic informed-money-leading signal as geopolitical risk accumulates beneath low attention.

12 items|8 trends analyzed|Regions: US

Ongoing Stories(2)

Fed Rate Hike Odds

Major Update

Odds recovered to 67.5% after post-meeting volatility (77.5%→61.5%→67.5%). September meeting now pricing 56.5% probability of 25bps hike.

See previous coverage

US-Iran War/Invasion Odds

Major Update

Invasion odds climbed to 26.5% (+3 points) with $1.4M daily volume while search interest remains flat at 12. Ceasefire markets resolved NO but longer-term risk accumulating.

See previous coverage

Visualizations(4)

Fed Rate Hike 2026 Odds vs Search Interest Divergence

Markets price 67.5% probability of Fed rate hike in 2026 (recovering from 77.5% peak on July 29). Search interest remains depressed at 14 despite the hawkish repricing. Markets seeing something the public isn't searching for.

US-Iran Invasion Odds Creep Higher While Search Interest Flatlines

US-Iran invasion odds rose from 23.5% to 26.5% (+3 points) over 24 hours while 'US Iran war' search interest remained flat at 12. 'Iran invasion' searches barely register at 1. Informed money accumulating before public attention returns.

Meta Earnings Search Spike (+500%) vs Stock Price Divergence

Meta earnings search interest hit 100 (+500% trending) as Microsoft/Meta reported, yet META stock trades at $586, down 14% from July 15 peak of $681. Search attention spike contrasts with bearish price action.

Dr. Fauci Search Interest: From Zero to 100 After 5th Amendment Testimony

Search interest for 'dr fauci' spiked from near-zero baseline (0-2) to 100 today following his Senate testimony where he invoked the 5th Amendment. 'Fauci hearing' searches hit 44 as public seeks context on the political firestorm.

Key Insights(4)

Hypotheses(2)

Thursday, July 30, 2026 - Prediction Markets Signals | Trendzs