Wednesday, July 29, 2026
Fed rate hike odds plunged 6.7 points to 20.8% on decision day despite elevated search anxiety, while Iran war attention collapsed 44% yet ceasefire odds remain cautious at 41-62%. The Strait of Hormuz market prices just 9.5% normalization odds by August 31 despite near-zero search interest, flagging persistent supply chain risk the public has moved on from.
Ongoing Stories(3)
Fed Rate Decision: Hawkish Risk Creeping Higher
Major UpdateRate hike odds dropped 6.7 points to 20.8% on decision day despite earlier hawkish drift, while search interest peaked at 85 then collapsed to 69.
See previous coverageUS-Iran Ceasefire: Coin-Flip Odds as Search Interest Fades
Still TrendingIran war search interest collapsed 44% from July 23 peak, but ceasefire odds remain at 41% July 31 / 62% August 31. Attention fading faster than market caution.
See previous coverageStrait of Hormuz: Market Optimism vs Search Apathy
Still TrendingTraffic normalization odds remain extremely low at 9.5% by August 31, with search interest down to 11 (from 50 peak). Market bearishness persists without public attention.
See previous coverageVisualizations(5)
Fed Rate Hike Odds vs Search Interest: Dovish Repricing on Decision Day
Market odds for a Fed rate hike dropped from 27% to 21% on meeting day, even as public search interest surged to 66 (peak was 98 on July 2). This divergence suggests informed money is pricing a hold while public anxiety remains elevated.
US-Iran War Search Interest Collapses 44% as Ceasefire Odds Steady
Iran war search interest has collapsed from 82 to 46 (44% decline) since July 23, yet ceasefire odds remain at 41% by July 31 and 62% by August 31. Public attention is fading faster than market confidence in resolution.
2028 Election: Market Odds vs Search Interest Collapse
JD Vance leads markets at 20.1% odds but search interest has collapsed to near-zero levels (13 index). Total 2028 election search interest peaked at 100 on July 26 but sits at 59 today despite market volume of $1.48M in 24h trading.
Strait of Hormuz: Persistent Market Bearishness Despite Low Search Interest
Markets price only 9.5% chance of Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by August 31, with just 2.6% odds for August 15. Search interest for Strait of Hormuz sits at 11 (down from peak of 50 on July 12), showing market caution where public has moved on.
Fed Meeting Week: Search Interest Peaked at 85, Now Fading
Fed meeting search interest peaked at 85 on July 28 (day before meeting) but has already declined to 69 on decision day. This follows typical pattern of public attention peaking just before events then fading, even as $15.25M in daily market volume resolves.