Tuesday, July 28, 2026
Fed rate hike odds climbed 40% to 27.5% in 24 hours ahead of the July 29 meeting while search interest stayed muted, suggesting informed positioning for hawkish surprise. Meanwhile, T-Mobile outage and Eric Bieniemy stories drove 700K+ combined searches without any prediction market capture, highlighting gaps in market design for infrastructure and off-field sports narratives.
Ongoing Stories(4)
Fed Rate Decision July 2026
Major UpdateRate hike odds have climbed further from ~20% to 27.5% in the final 24 hours before the July 29 decision. No-change probability has fallen from 80% to 71.5%.
See previous coverageBitcoin July $100K Prediction Market
Still TrendingBitcoin continues trading around $63,400, down 17% over 3 months. July $100K market remains priced at essentially 0% probability.
See previous coverageUS-Iran Ceasefire Prediction Markets
Still TrendingCeasefire-by-July-24 odds remain near coin-flip levels (53.2%) as the deadline approaches. Search interest has declined 51% from peak.
See previous coverage2028 Republican Nomination Markets
Still TrendingJD Vance maintains narrow lead at 20.1% for 2028 presidency, with Marco Rubio at 12.4%. Field remains highly fragmented with no clear frontrunner.
See previous coverageVisualizations(5)
2028 Presidential Election: Market Odds Leaders
JD Vance leads 2028 presidential odds at 20.1%, but field remains fragmented with Marco Rubio (12.4%) and Gavin Newsom (11.8%) within striking distance. No candidate commands dominant position 28 months before election.
Fed Rate Decision: Hawkish Risk Creeping Higher
Probability of 25bps hike climbed from 19.7% to 27.5% (+7.8 points) in 24 hours while no-change odds fell from 79.8% to 71.5%. Markets pricing increasing hawkish risk ahead of July 29 meeting despite consensus for pause.
Viral Attention Spikes: T-Mobile Outage vs Eric Bieniemy
T-Mobile outage search interest exploded from 0 to 100 (500K+ searches, +1000%) as 60K+ users reported issues. Eric Bieniemy search simultaneously spiked to 100 (200K+ searches) following family incident. Both signals lack prediction market capture.
Ballon d'Or 2026: Search Interest Collapse for Market Contenders
Lamine Yamal search interest collapsed 95% from peak (100 to 5) post-World Cup while his Ballon d'Or odds remain at 24.9%. Harry Kane leads markets at 46.1% but maintains near-zero search attention. Massive divergence between betting conviction and public interest.
US-Iran Ceasefire: Coin-Flip Odds as Search Interest Fades
Ceasefire-by-July-24 odds hover at 49-53% (virtual coin flip) while search interest for 'US Iran war' declined from 80 to 39 (-51%). Market uncertainty persists even as public attention moves on from conflict coverage.