Monday, August 24, 2026
Clarity Act crypto legislation odds collapsed 5 points to 19.5% after Senate delay pushed vote to September, while Bitcoin $85K August odds whipsawed between 12.8% and 24.1% before settling at 18.1% as price hit $77K. Fed markets remain the most crowded trade with 99% pricing against rate cuts despite zero public search interest.
Ongoing Stories(3)
Bitcoin $85K August Odds
Major UpdateOdds surged to 24.1% intraday before settling at 18.1%, up from 12.8% previous day. Bitcoin price hit $77K, up 20.5% this month. Rising queries show 'bitcoin news today' +900%.
See previous coverageAOC Democratic Nomination 2028
Still TrendingAOC odds rose to 22.7%, extending lead over Newsom (14.9%) to 7.8 points. Search interest has declined from peak of 20 to current 5 - divergence continues.
See previous coverageFed September Rate Decision
Still TrendingFed markets remain hawkish with 31.5% hike odds and 67.5% no change. Combined 99% probability of no rate cut remains the most crowded trade on Polymarket.
See previous coverageVisualizations(5)
Bitcoin Search Interest vs Price: The 20% Rally No One's Googling
Bitcoin price surged 20.5% from $64K to $77K in one month, but search interest remains muted at 45 vs peak of 89 in June. Rising queries show 'bitcoin news today' +900% - retail interest may be waking up.
Bitcoin $85K August Odds: Volatile After Price Surge
Bitcoin $85K August odds peaked at 24.1% on Aug 23 before settling at 18.1%, still up sharply from 12.8% previous day. Traders price 60.4% odds of hitting $80K given current $77K price.
Clarity Act Odds Plunge 5 Points on Senate Delay News
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) probability collapsed from 24.5% to 19.5% after news that Senate won't vote before August recess. September vote now targeted but 60-vote threshold seen as major hurdle.
AOC 2028 Nomination Odds Extend Lead to 7.8 Points
AOC's Democratic nomination odds rose steadily from 21.4% to 22.7%, extending lead over Gavin Newsom (14.9%) to 7.8 points. Search interest in AOC has declined from August peak of 20 to current 5 - money moving ahead of public attention.
Fed September Rate Hike Odds Hold at 31.5%
Markets price 31.5% probability of 25bps Fed hike in September, with 67.5% pricing 'no change'. Combined hike probability (31.5% + 0.4% for 50bps) means markets see 99% chance of no rate cut - extremely hawkish pricing with zero public search interest.