Sunday, August 23, 2026
Fed markets price 30.5% odds of a September rate hike while public search interest has collapsed to near zero, creating extreme information asymmetry. AOC extended her 2028 Democratic nomination lead to 6.4 points over Newsom as her odds spiked to 23.8% intraday before settling at 21.4%.
Ongoing Stories(2)
Fed September Rate Decision
Still TrendingRate hike odds holding at 30.5%, with no-change at 68.5%. Only 1.4% pricing for a cut.
See previous coverage2028 Democratic Nomination
Major UpdateAOC odds climbed to 23.8% intraday before settling at 21.4%, extending lead over Newsom's flat 15%.
See previous coverageVisualizations(4)
Fed Search Interest Collapses to Near Zero Despite Hawkish Market Pricing
Search interest for Fed-related terms has collapsed to 3-8 range (from 28 peak in June) even as markets price 30.5% odds of a September rate hike. 'Federal Reserve September' spiked to 46 in late June but now sits at 1.
AOC Nomination Odds Spike to 23.8% Intraday Before Settling at 21.4%
AOC's 2028 Democratic nomination odds climbed from 18.6% to 23.8% peak (+5.2 points) before settling at 21.4%, extending her lead over Newsom who remains flat at 15%. Total move of +2.8 points in 24 hours.
AOC Search Interest Dominates but Declining from August Peak
AOC search interest (21-29 recently) still dominates Newsom (4-5) and Ossoff (11-16), but has cooled significantly from 100 peak on August 12. Ossoff spiked to 54 on August 18 but has since normalized to 11.
Bitcoin Search Interest Surges 165% While $85K Odds Stay Subdued at 12.8%
Bitcoin search interest jumped from 23 to 61 (+165%) between Aug 15-21, but Polymarket odds for $85K August target remain modest at 12.8%. $100K target at just 0.7%.