Saturday, August 22, 2026
Fed hike odds have surged to 31% for September while search interest remains near-zero, creating the widest market-public divergence of 2026. Ethereum $3,000 odds collapsed 50% from their peak and AOC commands an 18.6% nomination lead despite virtually zero search interest, suggesting institutional money is positioning ahead of public awareness across multiple markets.
Ongoing Stories(1)
Fed September Rate Decision
Major UpdateHike odds have increased further to 30.5% (31% including 50bps+), peaking at 32.5% intraday. Yesterday's 27.5% was just the beginning—markets are now pricing meaningful probability of a September hike, not just no-cut.
See previous coverageVisualizations(6)
Key Probability Shifts (24-48 Hour Change)
Fed hike odds remain elevated at 30.5% (peak 32.5%), ETH $3K odds halved from 15.2% peak, BTC $85K odds nearly halved from 36.8% peak. Market repricing crypto upside, maintaining hawkish Fed view.
Fed September Rate Hike: Market Odds vs Search Interest
Fed 25bps hike odds spiked to 32.5% peak (now 30.5%), up from 27.5% yesterday, while search interest collapsed to near-zero (2-3 range). Informed money pricing hawkish risk while public attention remains minimal.
Ethereum $3K Target: Market Odds Crater Despite Search Interest
ETH $3K August odds collapsed from 15.2% peak to 7.5% currently, even as search interest remains elevated at 40-43. Market conviction fading fast despite sustained public attention.
Bitcoin $85K August: Extreme Market Volatility
BTC $85K odds swung wildly from 18.9% to 36.8% peak, now back to 19.9% - nearly unchanged. Search interest peaked at 70 and settled at 57. Market pricing significant uncertainty with no clear directional conviction.
2028 Democratic Nomination: Market Odds vs Search Interest Divergence
AOC leads markets at 18.6% vs Newsom 15.0% and Ossoff 14.3%, but AOC search interest is virtually zero (1). Ossoff had massive search spike (100 on Aug 18, now 24) but flat market odds. Markets and public operating on completely different information sets.
Key Probability Levels: Current vs Recent Peaks
Fed hike odds remain elevated at 30.5% near 32.5% peak. ETH $3K odds halved from 15.2% peak. BTC $85K nearly halved from 36.8% peak. Market repricing crypto upside while maintaining hawkish Fed view.