Friday, August 21, 2026
Bitcoin $80K odds surged 42 points to 51% in 24 hours while public search interest remained flat at 59/100, signaling informed money is front-running a potential breakout. Fed markets now price 27.5% odds of a September rate hike with public attention collapsing to 42/100, marking a complete pivot from the rate-cut expectations of early 2026. Ethereum and crypto markets are showing similar momentum with ETH $2,700 odds doubling to 20% despite minimal public attention at 10/100.
Ongoing Stories(1)
Fed September Decision: Hawkish Shift Underway
Major UpdateRate hike odds increased further to 27.5% while no-change odds dipped to 71.5%. Public interest remains near zero at 42/100.
See previous coverageVisualizations(5)
Fed Markets Pivot: 27.5% Now Pricing Rate HIKE in September
Markets now price 71.5% probability of 'no change' (down from 72.5%) and 27.5% chance of a 25bps RATE HIKE (up from 26.5%), while public interest in 'interest rates' collapsed from 100 to 42
NATO-Russia Clash Odds Collapse 43 Points After Brief Spike
NATO-Russia military clash odds by Oct 2026 spiked to 56.5% before collapsing to 13.5% (-43 points), while search interest remains near all-time lows at 11/100, showing traders whipsawed on geopolitical noise
2028 Democratic Nomination: AOC Leads at 18.1% vs Newsom 15%
AOC holds narrow 3.1-point lead over Newsom for Democratic nomination (18.1% vs 15.0%), while Jon Ossoff has surged to 14.0%, creating a three-way race. Search interest remains minimal with no public awareness spike.
Bitcoin $80K August Odds Explode 54 Points in 24 Hours
Bitcoin $80K odds surged from 9.6% to 51.2% (+42 points) in 24 hours, suggesting informed money is pricing in a major breakout while public search interest remains flat at 59/100
Ethereum $2,700 Odds Double as Crypto Momentum Builds
Ethereum $2,700 August odds climbed from 9.2% to 19.9% (+11 points), showing crypto traders are positioning for altcoin follow-through while public attention on Ethereum sits at just 10/100 vs Bitcoin's 59/100