Tuesday, August 25, 2026
Bitcoin $85K August odds exploded 155% to 32.6% while search interest remains 46% below peak, signaling informed money front-running a potential breakout with retail still on the sidelines. Fed markets have undergone a dramatic hawkish pivot, now pricing 33.9% odds of a September rate hike versus 99% no-change just weeks ago—a massive repricing that public search interest has completely ignored.
Ongoing Stories(3)
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026
Still TrendingOdds declined further to 18.5% from 19.5% yesterday, continuing the downward trend as Senate delays persist.
See previous coverageFed September Rate Hike Odds
Major UpdateHike odds surged to 33.9% total probability from ~31.5%, with no-change odds dropping to 65.5% from previous higher levels. Hawkish pivot accelerating.
See previous coverageBitcoin $85K August Odds
Major UpdateOdds exploded from ~24% to 32.6% as price surged to $79,945. Just $5K shy of target with 6 days remaining.
See previous coverageVisualizations(6)
Fed September Decision: Market Probability Distribution
Markets now price 33.5% chance of September rate HIKE vs 65.5% no change. This is a dramatic shift from 99% no change just weeks ago. Total hike probability: 33.9%.
Bitcoin Search Interest vs Price Rally
Bitcoin search interest at 54, up 74% from Aug 18 low of 31 but still 46% below June peak of 100. Markets price 32.6% odds of $85K August close while price sits at $79,945.
Bitcoin Price 3-Month Trajectory
Bitcoin surged from $62,819 (Aug 16) to $79,945 (Aug 25) - a 27% gain in 9 days. Currently $5,055 shy of $85K target with 6 days remaining in August.
JD Vance 2028 Odds vs Search Interest Collapse
JD Vance search interest collapsed to 14, down 85% from June 17 peak of 95. Yet Polymarket odds hold firm at 47.3% for 2028 GOP nomination - extreme information gap.
Crypto Market Odds: Bitcoin vs Ethereum August Targets
Bitcoin $85K odds at 32.6% with price at $79,945. Ethereum $2.7K odds at 32.8% with price at $2,484. ETH $3K odds collapsed to just 4% from nearly 50% weeks ago.
Fed September Decision: Hawkish Pivot Complete
Markets now price 33.9% total probability of September rate HIKE (33.5% +25bps, 0.4% +50bps) vs 65.5% no change. Complete reversal from 99%+ no change pricing weeks ago.