Wednesday, August 12, 2026
Fed September "No Change" odds rebounded 6 points to 62.5% in 24 hours despite near-zero public search interest, while Bitcoin's $100K August market effectively resolved to 0.1% with $524K betting against a retail narrative that never gained search traction.
Ongoing Stories(1)
Democratic 2028 Field Tightens
Still TrendingTop 3 remain tightly packed: Newsom 17.8%, Ossoff 15.8%, AOC 15.2%. Search interest in Newsom continues to exceed AOC despite narrower odds gap.
See previous coverageVisualizations(4)
Fed Policy Search Interest Remains Near Zero Despite Market Movement
Search interest for Fed-related terms has collapsed to near-zero levels (2-3 on Google Trends scale) even as prediction markets show 6-point swings in rate expectations. Informed money is moving on data the public isn't tracking.
Bitcoin $100K August Market: 99.9% 'No' With Zero Search Attention
Bitcoin $100K August market trades at 0.1% 'Yes' with $524K volume effectively betting against the outcome. Search interest for 'Bitcoin 100K' has been zero all summer - the market moved without any public narrative.
Democratic 2028: Market Odds vs Search Interest Gap
Newsom leads markets at 17.8% and search interest at 14 index, while Ossoff has 15.8% market odds but minimal search buzz. AOC's 15.2% odds far exceed her search footprint - suggesting insider positioning ahead of public attention.
Fed September Decision: 'No Change' Odds Rebound 6 Points in 24 Hours
Fed 'No Change' odds rose from 56.5% to 62.5% (+6 points) while 25bps hike odds fell from 40.5% to 36.5% (-4 points). This completely reverses yesterday's reported 'slide' in no-change odds.