Thursday, August 13, 2026
AOC has overtaken Gavin Newsom in Democratic 2028 nomination odds for the first time, with her probability surging 3.9 points to 19.1% while Newsom drifted to 17.2% and search interest failed to follow. Fed September markets stabilized at 66.5% "No Change" with near-zero public search attention despite $2.4M in daily volume. Bitcoin's $64K August 13 market sees probability bleeding lower to 35.5% ahead of today's noon ET resolution.
Ongoing Stories(3)
Fed September Decision
Still TrendingNo Change odds stable at 66.5%, hike probability at 32.5%. Search interest remains near zero despite $30M+ in market volume.
See previous coverageStrait of Hormuz Recovery Odds
Still TrendingRecovery by August 31 now at just 2.8%, down from 4% yesterday. Markets pricing permanent disruption.
See previous coverageEthiopia Election
Still TrendingAbiy Ahmed stable at 95.5%, but massive volume asymmetry continues with $29M on Belete Molla 'No' contract vs only $124K on Abiy 'Yes'.
See previous coverageVisualizations(4)
AOC Overtakes Newsom: Democratic 2028 Nomination Market Flip
AOC odds surged from 15.2% to 19.1% in 24 hours (+3.9 points), while Newsom drifted down from 17.8% to 17.2%. AOC now leads the Democratic nomination market for the first time.
Fed September Decision: No Change Holds 2:1 Advantage
No Change probability holds at 66.5% vs 32.5% for a 25bps hike. Spread has widened from 26 points to 34 points in 24 hours. Markets pricing in 98.9% probability of no rate cut.
Search Interest: Newsom Still Dominates AOC Despite Market Flip
Gavin Newsom search interest averages 15-20 points while AOC 2028 searches remain at 2-4 points. Market odds flipped but public attention has not followed.
Bitcoin $64K August 13: Probability Sliding to Resolution
Probability dropped from 42.5% to 35.5% this morning (-7 points) as noon ET resolution approaches. Market resolves today based on Binance BTC/USDT 12:00 ET close price.