Tuesday, August 11, 2026
The Clarity Act odds jumped 5 points to 25.5% on Senate delay news while search interest collapsed 81%, Russia's "New People" party surged to 26.2% with zero US search awareness, and Fed "no change" odds dropped 7 points to 56.5% as markets reprice hawkish outcomes ahead of September FOMC.
Ongoing Stories(3)
Strait of Hormuz Recovery Odds
Still TrendingRecovery odds by August 31 remain at 3.5%, unchanged from yesterday's collapse to 4% level. Markets pricing permanent disruption.
See previous coverageBitcoin August 11 Market
Major UpdateMarket resolves TODAY at 4pm ET with 99.9% certainty on $54K+ threshold. Search interest collapsed to near-zero ahead of resolution.
See previous coverageElon Musk Tweet Count Market
Major UpdateMarket resolves TODAY at 4pm ET. 180-199 tweet range leads at 52.5%, but final count remains uncertain with hours remaining.
See previous coverageVisualizations(5)
Democratic 2028 Field Tightens: Top 3 Separated by Just 2.5 Points
Newsom leads at 17.5% but Ossoff (15.8%) and AOC (15.0%) close behind - top three separated by only 2.5 points. Combined, top 3 control just 48.3% of probability, leaving field wide open with 30.8% in 'Others'.
Clarity Act Odds Rise Despite Collapsing Public Interest
Clarity Act passage odds climbed from 20.5% to 25.5% (+5 points) after Senate delay announcement, while search interest for 'crypto regulation' collapsed from 52 to 10 (-81%). Markets pricing 1-in-4 chance despite public attention evaporating.
Russian Election: United Russia Weakens as New People Surges
United Russia odds declined from 67.5% to 65.5% while New People party surged from 22.9% to 26.2% (+3.3 points). Combined opposition now at 34.5% vs United Russia's 65.5% - a dramatic gap collapse with zero US search interest.
Fed 'No Change' Odds Slide as Markets Reprice Hawkish
Probability of 'no change' in September fell from 63.5% to 56.5% (-7 points) in 24 hours as markets reprice hawkish outcomes. Meanwhile 25bp hike odds rose to 41.5%. Search interest for 'Fed meeting' remains near zero (2 on Google Trends scale).
2028 Democratic Nomination: Top 3 Separated by Just 2.5 Points
Newsom leads at 17.5% but Ossoff (15.8%) and AOC (15.0%) are within 2.5 points. Top 3 combined control only 48.3% of probability, leaving field wide open with 30.8% in 'Others' - the most fragmented race on Polymarket.