Monday, August 10, 2026
Fed markets flipped dramatically dovish with No Change odds surging 9 points to 63.5% while search interest stayed flat, Strait of Hormuz recovery odds collapsed to just 4% pricing permanent disruption, and Bitcoin's weekly price market resolved with 99.6% certainty between $64K-$66K.
Ongoing Stories(2)
Fed September Decision: Market Pricing
Major UpdateMarkets shifted dramatically dovish - No Change odds jumped 9 points to 63.5% while 25bps Hike dropped 10 points to 34.5%. Search interest remains near zero.
See previous coverageStrait of Hormuz Recovery Odds Collapse
Major UpdateRecovery odds by Aug 31 collapsed further from ~6.5% to just 4% - now down 70% from Aug 4 levels. Markets pricing 96% probability of permanent disruption.
See previous coverageVisualizations(5)
Bitcoin August 10 Market: Resolution Today at Noon ET
Markets price BTC at $64K-$66K range with 97.9% confidence above $64K but only 9.5% above $66K. BTC currently trading at $65,191.
Elon Musk Tweet Count: Resolves Tomorrow
180-199 tweet range leads at 52.5% probability with $92K volume, followed by 160-179 at 32.5%. Market narrows as resolution approaches Aug 11.
Fed September: Markets Pivot Dovish on Rate Decision
No Change odds surged from 54.5% to 63.5% (+9 points) while 25bps Hike dropped from 44.5% to 34.5% (-10 points). Markets rapidly repricing dovish while search interest stays flat.
Strait of Hormuz Recovery Odds Collapse to 4%
Probability of normal Hormuz traffic by Aug 31 collapsed 70% from 13.5% to just 4%. Markets now pricing permanent disruption with 96% confidence of no recovery.
Fed Decision vs Public Search Interest
Fed search interest remains near 6% of peak while odds shifted dramatically - informed money moving ahead of public attention. Classic smart money divergence signal.