Tuesday, October 13, 2026
Polymarket prices a 79.5% chance of another Fed rate hike in 2026 while public search interest stays near zero, and Ilhan Omar charge odds crashed 33 points to 16.5% despite a 100x search spike as markets read the raid details.
Ongoing Stories(4)
US-Iran Ceasefire
Still TrendingVolume remains elevated at $958K in 24h as markets continue pricing the ceasefire timeline.
See previous coverageShane Gillis SNL
Still TrendingSearch interest remains elevated at 50K queries, 800% increase, ahead of his third hosting gig.
See previous coverageSocial Security COLA
Still TrendingContinues trending with 50K searches and 400% increase; still no dedicated prediction market exists.
See previous coverage2028 Democratic Nomination
Still TrendingAOC holds narrow lead at 17.8% over Newsom's 14.1% with $722K in daily volume.
See previous coverageVisualizations(4)
Market Odds vs Search Interest: Who's Ahead of Whom?
Ilhan Omar searches hit 100 while charge odds sit at just 16.5%. Fed hike odds are 79.5% with search interest near 1. Diddy searches spiked to 77 but release odds remain 9.2%.
Ilhan Omar Charge Odds Collapse From 49.5% to 16.5%
The newly created market opened at 49.5% on news of the raid, then crashed 33 points to 9.5% as details emerged, settling at 16.5%. Search interest hit 100 at the same time.
Fed Rate Hike Probability Steady at 79.5% as Search Sleeps
Probability of another Fed rate hike in 2026 climbed steadily from 76.5% to 79.5% over 24 hours, with $647K in volume. Search interest in 'fed interest rates' remained flat at 0-3.
Search Interest Explodes for Omar and Diddy, Flat for Fed
Ilhan Omar searches spiked 100x on Oct 12 and Diddy searches jumped 7x on Oct 13, while Fed interest rate searches flatlined near zero and Bitcoin price searches stayed range-bound.