Monday, October 12, 2026
Bitcoin's $84K strike probability crashed 18.5 points to 41.5% on $550M liquidations while search stayed flat, and Gadi Eizenkot surged to 45.6% in Israel's PM race with near-zero US attention.
Ongoing Stories(1)
Marine Le Pen Odds Continue Slide to 39.4%
Still TrendingLe Pen ticked up slightly to 40.0% today (+0.6 points), but remains well below her highs. Search interest flat at 34.
See previous coverageVisualizations(5)
Hormuz Agreement: Market Says 89% No Deal
Polymarket prices just 11% chance of a Hormuz agreement by Oct 23, with 88.8% betting on no deal. Search interest near zero despite active US-Iran negotiations. Market reflects Iran's rejection of US response as 'insufficient' on Oct 12.
2028 Democratic Nomination: Three-Way Race Emerges
AOC leads at 17.8%, followed by Jon Ossoff at 16.1% and Gavin Newsom at 15.4%. The top three are separated by just 2.4 points. Search interest shows AOC averaging 18 vs Newsom's 13 over past 2 weeks.
Search vs Market: Bitcoin Attention Flat as Odds Swing
Bitcoin search interest remains stable at 33-45 over past week while prediction market odds for $84K strike swung wildly (60% to 41.5%). Divergence suggests institutional deleveraging driving price, not retail FOMO.
Bitcoin $84K Strike: Market Confidence Crashes 18.5 Points
Probability of Bitcoin above $84K on Oct 12 plunged from 60% at 7:11 AM to 41.5% by 8:10 AM as $550M in long liquidations hit crypto markets. Market now prices a coin-flip chance despite BTC trading near $84K.
Israel PM Race: Eizenkot Surges Past Netanyahu
Gadi Eizenkot jumped from 40.6% to 45.6% (+5 points) in 24 hours, opening a 14-point lead over Benjamin Netanyahu at 31.5%. Search interest remains flat at 10, suggesting informed money is moving ahead of public attention.