Saturday, September 12, 2026
Fed hike odds surged to 78.5% after hot CPI while public search interest already faded, and AOC leads Democratic nomination betting at 17.5% despite minimal Google attention. Bernie Sanders' 32-hour workweek bill drove search interest to 100 with no prediction market to trade it.
Ongoing Stories(2)
GOP 2028 Nomination: Vance vs Trump Odds
Still TrendingJ.D. Vance holds steady at 50.6% while Trump remains at 1.9%; no significant odds movement since yesterday's report.
See previous coverageBrazil 2026 Election: Current Market Odds
Still TrendingLula remains at 49.5% on Polymarket, with Tarcisio de Freitas effectively at zero; the race is still a coin flip with six weeks to the election.
See previous coverageVisualizations(5)
Fed 25bps Hike Odds Spike to 78.5%
Polymarket odds of a 25bps Fed hike surged 17 points from 61.5% to 78.5% within 24 hours after August CPI came in hot, peaking at 81.5% late on Sep 11
Democratic 2028 Nomination: AOC Leads the Betting
AOC leads Polymarket's Democratic nomination odds at 17.5%, followed by Ossoff at 16.2% and Newsom at 13.9%, reflecting a compressed progressive-establishment race with no candidate above 20%
Fed Search Interest: The One-Day Wonder
Google search interest for Fed-related terms spiked to 33 on Sep 11 during the CPI release but halved to 17 by Sep 12, even as prediction markets held hike odds near 80%
Democratic Candidate Search Interest
Despite leading prediction markets at 17.5%, AOC's Google search interest sits at just 4 on Sep 12, trailing Newsom (11) and Ossoff (9) in relative public attention
Bernie's 32-Hour Workweek: Search Explosion
Searches for 'Bernie Sanders workweek' exploded from zero to 100 and '32 hour work week' jumped to 96 on Sep 12 after the bill was reintroduced, with no corresponding prediction market to trade the outcome