Friday, September 11, 2026
J.D. Vance hit 50% odds to win the 2028 GOP nomination while search interest for the primary sits at zero, and Fed hike odds surged to 61.5% ahead of the Sept 16 meeting with minimal public attention. WTI crude surged 20% to $100 as Bahrain naval base searches spiked 1000%.
Ongoing Stories(1)
US-Iran Ceasefire
Major UpdateActing Navy Secretary Hung Cao confirmed Iran 'blew the hell out of' Naval Support Activity Bahrain, driving 1000% search spike for the base today. WTI crude hit $104.46 before pulling back to $99.88.
See previous coverageVisualizations(5)
WTI Crude Oil: 1-Month Price Surge
WTI crude surged 20% from $83.20 to $99.88 over the past month, hitting a high of $104.46 on Sept 11 as Middle East tensions escalated, before pulling back slightly to close near $100.
GOP 2028 Nomination: Vance vs Trump Odds
J.D. Vance climbed from 44.1% to 50.2% over the past month, peaking at 53.0% on Sept 3, while Donald Trump flatlined near 1.9% for the entire period, effectively written off by prediction markets.
Fed September Meeting: Hike vs No-Change Odds
Probability of a 25bps hike surged from 23.5% on Aug 22 to 61.5% today, overtaking no-change odds which collapsed from 74.5% to 38.5% after hot PPI data released Sept 10.
Search Interest: J.D. Vance vs Republican Primary 2028
While J.D. Vance maintains baseline search interest at 33, 'Republican primary 2028' sits at 0 despite Vance holding 50% market odds, showing a massive attention gap.
Search Interest: Fed Rate Cut vs Fed Interest Rates
'Fed rate cut' searches collapsed to 3 while 'Fed interest rates' ticked up to 13, even as prediction markets price a 61.5% chance of a September rate hike — the public is not paying attention.