Saturday, September 5, 2026
Ongoing Stories(3)
Fed September Decision
Still TrendingHike odds recovered 10 points from 40.5% to 50.5% today, while 'no change' slid to 48.5%. The September decision remains a coin flip with $96M in volume.
See previous coverageUS Open Men's Tennis
Still TrendingCarlos Alcaraz holds at 45.5% to win the title after Jannik Sinner was eliminated (now 0%). The tournament continues through Sept 13.
See previous coverageDemocratic Presidential Nomination 2028
Still TrendingAOC leads at 19.8% with Jon Ossoff steady at 15.3% and Gavin Newsom declining to 14.2%. The invisible primary continues with zero public search interest.
See previous coverageVisualizations(5)
Fed Rate Cut Distribution for 2026
The market is pricing a 93.2% chance of zero Fed rate cuts in 2026, with just 3.6% for one cut, 2.2% for two cuts, and roughly 1% for three or more. This extreme distribution across $51M in volume represents one of the most lopsided consensus bets in macro prediction market history.
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire by Dec 2026: Market Odds vs Search Interest
Ceasefire agreement odds spiked 16.5 points to 34% on Sept 4 after Ukraine declared a temporary pause and US envoys were dispatched, then faded 7.5 points to 26.5% within 24 hours as markets priced in skepticism. Google search interest for 'Ukraine ceasefire' remained flat at near-zero throughout, peaking at just 13 on Sept 5 despite the news.
Fed 'Zero Cuts in 2026' Probability vs Search Interest
Probability of zero Fed rate cuts in 2026 surged from 88.6% one month ago to a record 93.2% today, including a 4.6-point jump in the last 48 hours. Google search interest for 'Federal Reserve interest rates' flatlined between 0-2 throughout the entire period, showing the public is completely disconnected from this historic hawkish repricing.
Fed September Hike Odds vs Annual 'No Cuts' Consensus
September 25bps hike odds whipsawed from 58.5% to 40.5% on Sept 4 before recovering to 50.5% today, while the annual 'zero cuts in 2026' probability climbed steadily from 88.6% to 93.2%. The divergence shows traders see near-term volatility but are increasingly convinced the Fed will not ease at all this year regardless of the September outcome.
Democratic 2028 Nomination: The Invisible Primary
AOC stabilized at 19.8% after surging from 14.3% in early August, while Gavin Newsom steadily declined from 18.4% to 14.2%. Jon Ossoff held steady around 15.3%, overtaking Newsom in the process. None of the candidates register meaningful Google search interest, confirming this is pure insider political money trading ahead of the public.