Saturday, August 29, 2026
Fed probability markets repriced dramatically with "no change" odds crashing 13 points to 56.5% while rate hike odds surged to 42.5%, all while public search interest stayed near historic lows. JD Vance hit 48% odds for the 2028 Republican nomination with virtually zero Google searches for his candidacy, and Strait of Hormuz markets priced 99.8% chance the crisis continues through August despite collapsing public attention.
Ongoing Stories(3)
Fed September Decision: Extreme Hawkish Pricing
Major UpdateRate hike odds surged further to 42.5% while "no change" probability crashed 13 points from 69.5% to 56.5%. Markets now pricing nearly even odds of a hike vs hold.
See previous coverageJD Vance 2028 Nomination Odds
Still TrendingVance nomination odds reached 48.2%, approaching coin-flip territory while search interest remains near zero.
See previous coverageBitcoin $85K August Target
Winding DownOdds collapsed further to just 1.6%, down from 15.2% earlier. The August bull case is effectively dead.
See previous coverageVisualizations(5)
Fed 'No Change' Odds Crash 13 Points While Public Attention Stays Flat
Markets dramatically repriced Fed odds: 'No change' probability crashed from 69.5% to 56.5% (-13 points) in 24 hours while Google search interest for Fed terms remained flat at 9-13. The market sees hawkish risks; the public isn't searching.
Fed Rate Hike Odds Surge 12 Points to 42.5%
Probability of a September rate hike surged from 30.5% to 42.5% (+12 points), peaking at 52.5% intraday. Markets briefly priced >50% hike odds before settling. This repricing happened while search interest stayed near zero.
JD Vance 48% Nomination Odds vs Zero 2028 Search Interest
Vance's 2028 Republican nomination odds hit 48.2% - approaching a coin flip - while Google searches for 'JD Vance 2028' remain virtually zero. The market is far ahead of public attention on the 2028 race.
Strait of Hormuz: 99.8% Crisis Continues Through August
Markets price only 0.2% chance of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by August 31. Meanwhile search interest collapsed from 72 (mid-June peak) to 15. Markets expect prolonged crisis; public attention has faded despite ongoing shipping disruptions.
Fed September Decision: Current Probability Distribution
Markets now see the Fed decision as a two-horse race: 56.5% chance of no change vs 42.5% chance of a 25bps hike. Combined hike probability (43%) is the highest since this market opened. Rate cuts are effectively priced out at <1%.