Thursday, August 27, 2026
US-Iran invasion odds collapsed 26% from 15.5% to 11.5% on near-zero search interest as informed traders priced de-escalation, while Jon Ossoff quietly rose to 15.8% in Democratic nomination markets - just 0.7 points behind AOC with no public attention. Fed markets hit historic extremes pricing 98% chance of no rate cut and 30.5% odds of a hike, even as search interest in monetary policy collapsed 81% to just 12/100.
Ongoing Stories(3)
Fed September Decision
Still TrendingHawkish pricing intensified: 67.5% no change, 30.5% now pricing rate HIKE with search interest at near-zero levels.
See previous coverageBitcoin $85K August Target
Winding DownOdds dropped further to 13.5% from 16.2% as August deadline approaches with only days remaining.
See previous coverage2028 Democratic Nomination: AOC Lead
Still TrendingAOC holds 20.9% with 6.3-point lead over Newsom (14.6%), but Ossoff rising to 15.8% closes gap to just 0.7 points behind AOC.
See previous coverageVisualizations(6)
Search Interest: US-Iran Conflict Terms (3-Month Trend)
Search interest for US-Iran war terms remains extremely low (15/100 peak) with no spike corresponding to the odds movement, suggesting informed traders moved ahead of public attention.
2028 Democratic Nomination: AOC's 6.3-Point Lead Holds
AOC leads at 20.9% with a 6.3-point advantage over Newsom (14.6%), while Ossoff has quietly risen to 15.8% - just 0.7 points behind AOC in the nomination race.
Fed September Decision: Extreme Hawkish Pricing
Markets price 98% chance of no rate cut, with 30.5% odds of a rate HIKE - one of the most hawkish Fed expectations in prediction market history with $54.5M volume.
US-Iran Invasion Odds: Sharp 4-Point Drop in 24 Hours
Odds of US invading Iran before 2027 dropped from 15.5% to 11.5% (-26% relative change) between Aug 26-27 on $62M volume. Search interest remains near zero.
JD Vance 2028 Odds: Quietly Climbing to 24.1%
JD Vance 2028 presidential odds rose from 23.2% to 24.1% (+0.9 points) over 24 hours with $15.8M volume, maintaining position as the 2028 frontrunner.
AOC 2028 Search Interest vs Nomination Odds Divergence
AOC search interest collapsed 44% from 39 to 22 while her nomination odds held steady at 20.9%, showing markets pricing structural support absent public enthusiasm.