Monday, July 13, 2026
Bitcoin $64K prediction market odds crashed 40 points to 9.5% as price rejected resistance, while Iran succession markets saw $3.65M volume with 3.5% priced for regime collapse. Both signals show informed money moving ahead of flat search interest—classic smart money positioning before public attention catches up.
Ongoing Stories(1)
Strait of Hormuz Traffic Normal by July 31
Still TrendingOdds for normal traffic by July 15 collapsed to 0.4%, indicating prolonged shipping disruption expected.
See previous coverageVisualizations(5)
World Cup Winner: England Odds Edge Ahead of Spain (21.6% vs 20.8%)
England leads World Cup winner odds at 21.6% with $98.6M volume, Spain at 20.8% with $106.9M volume. France and Argentina trail behind as semifinal matchups set.
Iran Regime Instability: Market Prices 3.5% Chance of 'No Head of State' by 2026
Probability of 'no head of state' in Iran by end of 2026 holds steady at 3.5% (range 3.2-3.6%) despite $3.65M in 24h trading volume. Mojtaba Khamenei remains odds-on favorite at 79.2% for leader, but market shows persistent concern about regime stability.
France vs Spain: Bettors Slightly Favor France as Search Interest Stays Flat
France win odds slipped from 42.5% to 41.1% (-1.4 points) while Spain rose from 28.5% to 29.1% (+0.6 points). Search interest for 'France vs Spain' remains near zero despite match being tomorrow - betting money is flowing far ahead of public attention.
Bitcoin Odds Crash: $64K Probability Plunges 40 Points to 9.5%
Bitcoin above $64K odds collapsed from 49.5% to 9.5% (-40 points) as BTC failed to hold $64K resistance. $62K+ odds also fell from 94.5% to 90.5%. Market now prices BTC between $60-62K range for July 13 expiry.
Bitcoin Search Interest Flat at 34 Despite Major Odds Moves
Search interest for 'Bitcoin price' sits at 34 (relatively low) while prediction markets saw dramatic odds swings. 'Crypto crash' queries remain near zero, indicating retail attention hasn't caught up to institutional betting activity.