Sunday, July 12, 2026
The Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization odds crashed from 11.5% to 4.5% on $15.6M volume as shipping disruptions persist, while JD Vance holds a commanding 19.9% to 11.7% lead over Gavin Newsom in 2028 presidential election betting with $31M in combined volume. Kylian Mbappé has separated from Lionel Messi in the Golden Ball market at 42.5% versus 30.6%, and Paddy Pimblett searches spiked 800% during UFC 329 weekend without generating substantive betting market activity.
Ongoing Stories(1)
Ethiopia PM Market: Abiy Ahmed Nears Certainty
Still TrendingOdds increased from 93.3% to 96.7% with $3.7M in fresh 24h volume as market approaches resolution.
See previous coverageVisualizations(5)
Search Interest: Strait of Hormuz vs Oil Prices
Search interest for 'Strait of Hormuz' remains near zero (score of 5 today vs peak of 15 in April) despite the odds crash. 'Oil prices' also flat at 3, suggesting traders are ahead of public awareness on Hormuz disruption risks.
Paddy Pimblett Search Interest Spikes 800% on UFC 329 Weekend
Search interest for 'Paddy Pimblett' exploded from near-zero to 9 on July 12, coinciding with UFC 329 fight weekend. 'UFC' searches hit 100 (peak popularity) as the Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway card drove massive attention.
Strait of Hormuz Traffic Normal by July 31: Odds Collapse
Probability of normal Hormuz traffic by July 31 crashed from 11.5% to 4.5% in 24 hours — a 61% relative drop. $15.6M in volume suggests informed money is betting the shipping disruption continues despite limited public search attention.
2028 Presidential Election: Vance vs Newsom Odds
JD Vance leads at 19.9% probability vs Gavin Newsom at 11.7% — an 8.2 point gap. Vance has held steady near 20% while Newsom fluctuates between 11-12%. Combined volume exceeds $31M, showing significant betting interest 28 months before election day.
World Cup Golden Ball: Mbappé vs Messi Odds
Kylian Mbappé leads at 42.5% probability vs Lionel Messi at 30.6% for the Golden Ball. Mbappé gained 1 point overnight while Messi remains flat. Combined market volume is $816K with Mbappé consolidating as France advances to semifinals.