Thursday, October 22, 2026
Texas Senate Democratic win odds surged to 67.5% as search interest hit peak levels, while Fed markets priced an 11.5% chance of a surprise rate hike despite flat public attention. JD Vance solidified his 2028 GOP frontrunner status at 43.8% as Trump's odds collapsed to 1.9%, and Flávio Bolsonaro maintained 78.8% in Brazil's presidential market with minimal US search interest.
Ongoing Stories(2)
2028 Republican Nomination: JD Vance Dominates
Still TrendingVance holds steady at 43.8%, Trump remains collapsed at 1.9%. Search interest for JD Vance hit 44, up 120% from early October.
See previous coverageFlávio Bolsonaro Brazil Election
Still TrendingOdds steady at 78.8% after peaking at 80.3%. Lula remains at 21.5%.
See previous coverageVisualizations(4)
Texas Senate Search Interest vs Market Odds
Search interest for Texas Senate race exploded 12x from July to October (8 to 100), while Democratic win odds climbed steadily from ~45% to 67.5%. Search spike on Oct 22 coincided with fresh polling showing Talarico leading Paxton.
2028 GOP Nomination: Market vs Search Attention
JD Vance leads markets at 43.8% while also dominating search interest at 44. Trump has collapsed to 1.9% market odds despite 20 search interest. Search interest for Vance up 120% since early October.
Texas Senate Race: Democratic Odds Surge to 67.5%
Democratic win probability in Texas Senate race climbed from 64.5% to 67.5% (+3 points) over 24 hours, peaking at 68.5%. Search interest hit 100 on Oct 22.
Fed October Decision: Hold Odds Firm at 87.5%
Fed no-change odds stabilized at 87.5% after dipping to 86.5%. 25bps hike probability sits at 11.5%, up from near-zero in prior weeks. Search interest remains flat at 2.