Wednesday, September 30, 2026
Fed October hike odds collapsed 27 points to 41.5% as Williams signaled no urgency while search interest flatlined at 8. In Israel, Gadi Eizenkot leads PM markets at 43.3% despite zero US search interest, and OpenAI Dots went viral even as ChatGPT Pro signup odds crashed to 29.5%.
Ongoing Stories(2)
Marine Le Pen 2027 French Presidential Election
Major UpdateLe Pen's odds jumped another 3.4 points to 42.8% on Sept 30, reaching new highs while US search interest remains flat at 8.
See previous coverageBrazil 2026 Presidential Election - Flávio Bolsonaro
Still TrendingFlávio Bolsonaro holds steady at 59.5%, up 1.4 points from Sept 29, with Lula trailing at 40.5%. Volume remains elevated at $717K in 24h.
See previous coverageVisualizations(5)
Fed October 25bps Hike Odds Collapse
Polymarket odds of a 25bps Fed hike in October collapsed from 68.5% on Sept 29 to 41.5% on Sept 30, a 27-point drop in 24 hours after dovish Williams comments and soft labor data. Source: Polymarket (token 55159722761418013044126414276680602270318000841690689684819994448621694923050)
US Search Interest: Fed Interest Rates
US search interest for 'Fed interest rates' spiked to 100 during the week of Sept 13-19, then crashed to 8 by Sept 27-Oct 3, even as market odds swung violently. The public looked away exactly when the narrative flipped. Source: Google Trends US (today 12-m)
Israel PM Race: Eizenkot Slips, Netanyahu Holds
Gadi Eizenkot's odds to become Israel's next PM fell from 58.1% on Sept 4 to 43.3% on Sept 30, a 15-point slide, while Benjamin Netanyahu held steady near 30%. Polls still show Eizenkot leading Netanyahu 48% to 36% in direct preference. Source: Polymarket
ChatGPT Pro Signup Resumption Odds Plunge
Odds that OpenAI resumes US ChatGPT Pro signups by Sept 30 collapsed from 87% on Sept 29 to 29.5% on Sept 30, a 57.5-point crash, even as OpenAI's 'Dots' launch drove search interest to 100. Source: Polymarket (token 94484963615265052047694135695573341971850918597242097959866803760911220142907)
Marine Le Pen 2027 Odds Steady Climb
Marine Le Pen's odds to win the 2027 French presidency climbed from 33.4% in late August to 42.8% on Sept 30, a 9.4-point gain, including a 3.3-point jump in the last 24 hours. Source: Polymarket (token 55764212211467781322980371912612507865974994976253196346176314491480419639168)