Wednesday, September 2, 2026
Visualizations(5)
Bitcoin September Price Targets: Market Skepticism
Bitcoin $100K September target commands just 2.6% odds. Even $85K target only 33.5% likely. Markets pricing extreme pessimism - $80K target has highest probability at 73.5%.
Search Interest vs Market Signals: The Attention Gap
Search interest remains near-zero for Fed (0-5) and Iran (0-3) despite major market moves. JD Vance searches spiked to 48 in late July but collapsed to 11-22 range as odds climbed to 53%.
JD Vance 2028 GOP Nomination Odds
Vance odds climbed from 50.7% to 53.0% in 24 hours (Sept 1-2), hitting a new high. Now leads Marco Rubio by 35.4 percentage points (53.0% vs 17.6%).
Fed September Rate Hike Odds
Probability of 25bps rate hike rose from 56.5% to 59.5% in 24 hours. Combined with 50bps hike odds (0.9%), total rate hike probability now at 60.4% vs just 0.6% for any cut.
US-Iran Invasion Odds Before 2027
Invasion odds ticked up from 15.5% to 16.5% (Sept 1-2), continuing a steady grind higher from single digits in July. Market now pricing 1-in-6 chance of ground invasion.