Monday, August 17, 2026
Fed markets price 99% probability of no rate cut with extreme hawkish positioning while public search interest has collapsed 86% to near zero, and Byron Donalds trades at 99.1% certainty for tomorrow's Florida primary despite search interest peaking 10 days ago and collapsing 89% since. US-Iran diplomacy markets price 70% probability of no meeting by September 30 as both betting money and public attention abandon hope for a breakthrough, with search interest down 83% from July peaks.
Ongoing Stories(1)
Fed September Decision: No Change Odds Rise
Still TrendingFed 'No Change' odds remain at 74.5% with 24.5% now pricing a 25bps hike — extreme hawkish positioning with search interest near zero.
See previous coverageVisualizations(6)
Fed September 2026 Market: Extreme Hawkish Pricing
Markets price 99% combined probability of no action or a HIKE, with only 1.6% chance of any rate cut. This represents extreme hawkish positioning with $34M+ in volume.
US-Iran Talks: Markets Price 70% Probability of No Diplomatic Meeting
Markets give nearly 70% odds that no qualifying US-Iran diplomatic meeting occurs by September 30. Switzerland remains the leading location at just 10.5% if talks do happen.
Fed-Related Search Interest Collapses to Near Zero
Search interest for 'Federal Reserve' collapsed from 66 in mid-July to just 13 today (80% drop), while 'Jerome Powell' and 'Fed interest rates' remain near zero. Markets price 99%+ probability of no rate cut, yet public attention has completely evaporated.
Byron Donalds Search Interest Peaked Before Primary
Search interest for 'Byron Donalds' peaked at 100 on August 7 — 11 days before the August 18 primary — then collapsed 89% to 11. 'Florida governor' searches have been steadier, rising to 37. Market prices Donalds at 99.1% to win.
US-Iran Diplomatic Interest Collapses to Record Lows
Search interest for 'US Iran talks' collapsed 83% from 36 in early July to just 6 today, while 'Iran nuclear deal' searches flatlined at 2. Markets price 70% probability of no diplomatic meeting by September 30 — both signals point to abandoned diplomatic hopes.
Bitcoin Search Interest Collapses 59% Despite Price Stability
Search interest for 'Bitcoin' has collapsed 59% from 74 in late June to 30 today, while 'BTC price' queries remain near zero. Bitcoin trades at $63,460 — down 18% over 3 months but showing resilience despite complete retail disengagement.