Friday, August 7, 2026
Elon Musk's tweet count market resolves today with 87.5% consensus on 180-199 tweets despite zero search interest, while Strait of Hormuz recovery odds collapsed to 12.5% and Fed cut odds plunged to 2.9% as institutional money continues positioning ahead of public attention.
Ongoing Stories(2)
Strait of Hormuz Recovery Odds
Still TrendingOdds collapsed another 4 points to 12.5%, now down 50% from late-July peak of 25%. August 15 sub-market shows just 0.9% recovery odds.
See previous coverageFed September Rate Decision
Major UpdateCut odds collapsed to just 2.9% combined. Markets now split 48.5%/48.5% between no change and 25bp hike - dramatic repricing from yesterday's "no change" lead.
See previous coverageVisualizations(4)
Strait of Hormuz Recovery Odds in Free Fall
Hormuz recovery odds collapsed from 18.5% on Aug 6 to 12.5% today - a 6-point drop in 24 hours and 50% decline from the 25% peak in late July. Markets are pricing near-certainty that Iranian blockade persists through August.
2028 Presidential Candidates: Search Interest vs Market Odds
J.D. Vance leads prediction markets at 21.3% but has near-zero search interest (averaging 0-1). Marco Rubio dominates searches (peaking at 100) despite trailing Vance in odds (12.8%). Ossoff shows sustained search buzz (17-33) despite 9.7% odds.
Fed September Decision: Market Pricing vs Reality
Markets are split 50/50 between no change and 25bp hike, with rate cut odds nearly eliminated at just 2.9% combined. Traders have completely abandoned dovish positioning despite Fed's historical willingness to cut during economic stress.
Elon Musk Tweet Market Resolves Today: The Consensus Trade
The 180-199 range commands 87.5% probability with $188K volume as resolution approaches at 12:00 PM ET today. Total market volume: $3M. Previous consensus range (220-239) collapsed from 58.5% to 0.5% after Musk's reduced posting activity.