Wednesday, August 5, 2026
Fed September hike odds collapsed 8 points to 46.5% in 24 hours while search interest flatlined at zero, with markets now pricing 50.5% chance of no change. US-Iran invasion odds fell 9 points to 15.5% and Strait of Hormuz normalization odds rose to 16.5%, signaling coordinated de-risking across geopolitical and macro markets ahead of August 7 inflation data.
Ongoing Stories(2)
Fed September Rate Hike
Major UpdateDramatic dovish repricing: 25bps hike odds collapsed from 54.5% to 46.5% while 'no change' surged to 50.5%. Search interest remains flat at zero.
See previous coverageStrait of Hormuz
Major UpdateOdds of normal traffic by Aug 31 rose from 13.5% to 16.5% (+3 points), but markets remain 83.5% bearish. Search interest flat at 18 vs 100 peak.
See previous coverageVisualizations(5)
Abdul El-Sayed Search Interest Explodes 100x on Primary Day
Search interest for Abdul El-Sayed went from near-zero to 100 on election day (Aug 5), up 600%+ in 24 hours. Polymarket correctly priced him at 99.7% odds to win the Michigan Democratic Senate primary.
Fed September Hike Odds Collapse 8 Points as Search Interest Flatlines
Fed 25bps hike odds dropped from 54.5% to 46.5% in 24 hours (-8 points), while 'fed rate hike' search interest remains near zero. Markets repriced dramatically dovish with 'no change' now at 50.5%.
US-Iran Invasion Odds Collapse to 15.5% - Down 9 Points Since Monday
Invasion odds fell from 24.5% (Aug 1) to 15.5% today (-9 points), with 6 points of that drop occurring in the last 24 hours. $56.7M market now pricing significantly lower geopolitical risk.
Strait of Hormuz: Odds Edge Up to 16.5% While Public Attention Collapses
Strait of Hormuz 'normal by Aug 31' odds rose from 13.5% to 16.5% (+3 points), but search interest flatlined at 18 vs 100 peak in June. Markets slightly less bearish but still 83.5% expect disruption.
Market Odds Divergence: Fed, Iran, Hormuz
All three major geopolitical/economic markets moved dovish/de-escalatory in 24h: Fed hike odds -8 points, Iran invasion -6 points, Hormuz normalization +3 points. Combined shift suggests risk-off sentiment returning.