Tuesday, July 21, 2026
Elon Musk's tweet volume market shows 72.5% conviction with $2.5M in volume while search interest sits at zero, revealing prediction markets can identify stable behavioral patterns invisible to search data. JD Vance search interest spiked 205% but his 2028 nomination odds held flat at 41.6%, suggesting political prediction markets have reached efficiency where attention spikes no longer move prices.
Ongoing Stories(1)
Trump World Cup Champions Photo Market
Still TrendingMarket has now resolved to YES at 99.8%. Final 24h volume was $4.86M, bringing total to $7.8M. The photo has been published showing Trump with the Spanish team.
See previous coverageVisualizations(6)
Elon Musk Tweet Markets: 160-179 Range Dominates at 72.5%
Polymarket prices 160-179 tweets from July 14-21 at 72.5% probability, with 140-159 at 26.5%. Zero search interest in 'Elon Musk tweets' (score: 0-1) despite $2.5M+ in volume across all tweet count markets.
2028 Republican Nomination: Vance Leads at 41.6%, Rubio at 28.0%
JD Vance leads 2028 GOP nomination odds at 41.6% (+0.3 points in 24h) with $14.6M volume. Marco Rubio holds second at 28.0%. Search interest in 'JD Vance' spiked to 67 on July 20 (3x increase) while odds remained flat.
US-Iran Invasion Odds: Market Prices 25% Risk as Search Attention Wanes
Odds of US invading Iran before 2027 peaked at 27.5% on July 20, currently at 25.5%. Search interest for 'Iran war' declined from 100 to 67 over the past week, showing market pricing geopolitical risk while public attention has decreased.
Ryan Clark Search Explodes 1000%: No Market Signal Exists
Search interest for 'Ryan Clark' spiked from 14 to 100 (max index) on July 21 following reports of his ESPN firing. Related queries include 'ryan clark fired', 'peter schrager', and 'espn layoffs'. No prediction market tracks this event.
JD Vance Search Spikes 3x While Nomination Odds Stay Flat at 41.6%
Search interest for 'JD Vance' jumped from 22 to 67 on July 20 (205% increase), but 2028 GOP nomination odds remained stable at 41.6%. Market shows no reaction to public attention spike, suggesting either efficient pricing or information asymmetry.
Iran War Search Interest vs Invasion Odds: Diverging Trends
Search interest for 'Iran war' peaked at 67 on July 20 then declined to 63, while invasion odds rose from 24.5% to 25.5%. Market maintains elevated risk pricing even as public attention moderates from recent highs.