Friday, July 17, 2026
Iran regime collapse odds nearly doubled to 6.5% while search interest stayed flat, suggesting informed money is pricing elevated risk ahead of public attention and Trump's speech tonight. Taylor Farms cyclospora outbreak search interest exploded 89x with nearly 7,000 sickened across 34 states, yet no prediction market exists to trade the food safety fallout.
Ongoing Stories(2)
Fed July Meeting: No-Change Odds
Still TrendingNo-change odds now at 95.7%, rate cut probability effectively zero at 0.4%.
See previous coverageIran Regime Instability
Major UpdateNo Head of State odds rose from 3.5% to 6.5% in 24 hours - nearly doubled - while search interest remains flat.
See previous coverageVisualizations(5)
Taylor Farms Cyclospora Outbreak: Search Interest Explodes
Taylor Farms search interest surged from near-zero to 89 in 24 hours, while cyclospora searches hit 100. Nearly 7,000 people sickened across 34 states with 1,645 confirmed cases linked to contaminated lettuce at Taco Bell locations.
Iran Regime Risk: Market Odds Double While Search Interest Stays Flat
Probability of no head of state in Iran by end-2026 nearly doubled from 3.5% to 6.5% in 48 hours, hitting 7.8% intraday. Meanwhile, US search interest for Iran/Khamenei remains flat at 21-24 - a significant divergence suggesting informed money is pricing regime instability ahead of public attention.
France vs England World Cup Semifinal: Search Interest Peaks Pre-Match
Search interest for France vs England peaked at 100 on July 14 (England's quarterfinal day) and remains elevated at 93. Betting odds show France at 49.5%, England at 24.5%, Draw at 25.5% - essentially a coin flip between France and the field for tomorrow's semifinal.
Trump-Netanyahu Meeting Probability by Deadline
Markets price rapid escalation in Trump-Netanyahu meeting probability: just 0.7% chance by July 19 (tomorrow), but jumping to 42% by July 31 and 79.5% by August 31. This follows Trump's primetime speech tonight on election integrity amid heightened geopolitical tensions.
Trump Speech Tonight Drives 1000% Search Spike
Search interest for Trump's speech tonight surged to 100 with 500,000+ searches and a 1000% increase. The 9pm ET address on election integrity from the Oval Office will stream on major networks but won't air live on traditional TV broadcast - a notable divergence in media coverage.