Tuesday, August 18, 2026
Bitcoin transaction accelerator queries spiked 4,500% indicating network stress from stuck transactions, while search interest remains at capitulation floor for all majors and Polymarket prices 666-to-1 odds against $100K this month. Ethereum and Solana continue their silent outperformance with 575 basis points of relative strength versus Bitcoin over three months.
Ongoing Stories(3)
Polymarket August Bitcoin Price Odds: Extreme Pessimism Priced In
Still TrendingOdds remain extreme with 0.1% probability for $100K and 0.2% for $85K. Market continues to price in range-bound action through month-end.
See previous coverageCrypto Attention Capitulation: All Major Assets at Floor Levels
Still TrendingAttention remains at floor for 3+ weeks straight—Bitcoin at 31, Ethereum at 4, Solana at 5. Longest sustained capitulation since 2022.
See previous coverage3-Month Price Performance: Ethereum's Silent Resilience
Still TrendingETH and SOL continue to outperform BTC by 575bps (-10.9% vs -16.7%). Relative strength persists into third consecutive week.
See previous coverageVisualizations(5)
Polymarket August Bitcoin Price Odds: Extreme Pessimism
Polymarket prices 666-to-1 odds against Bitcoin hitting $100K (0.1% probability) and 500-to-1 against $85K (0.2%). Even $70K has only 10.5% probability. Market expects continued range-bound action with upside heavily discounted.
Crypto Attention Capitulation: All Majors at Floor Levels
Bitcoin search interest down 69% from peak (100 to 31), Ethereum down 80% (20 to 4), Solana down 71% (17 to 5). All three assets have flatlined at historically low attention levels since late July.
3-Month Price Performance: Ethereum and Solana Outperform Bitcoin
Bitcoin down 16.7% over 3 months, while Ethereum and Solana both down only 10.9%. ETH and SOL showing relative strength with 575 basis points of outperformance versus BTC.
The 'Safe Bitcoin' Education Signal: Sixth August Spike
'How to buy bitcoin safely' breakout searches hit 24 in mid-June then collapsed to 0. Current reading of 6 shows the sixth distinct spike this month, indicating persistent accumulation education behavior among cautious retail buyers.
Crypto Regulation News Interest: The New Baseline
Crypto regulation news interest spiked to 29 in late July and has settled into a new elevated baseline of 6-8, triple the pre-July levels. Factom showed a single-day spike to 18 on June 15 but has been silent since.